It’s academic

Following three years of me deriding James and poking him with a big stick on account of his truly average attempts at picking the Oscar winners, he finally snapped and said “if you can do better, please be my guest”. That was the gist of it anyway, but I do remember the sentence being somewhat shorter.

James has already put his neck on the line in Picturenose’s regular film feature here on Expatica. So, without further ado, and ahead of the 2010 Academy Awards on 7 March, I give you my predictions in the categories James has chosen. This should separate the bluff, pompous sheep from the canny and highly sexy goats.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

I have to agree and disagree with James here. I do think it’ll be a two-horse race between Invictus and Crazy Heart. I’m not so certain that Morgan Freeman will take it for his portrayal of Nelson Mandela, though. Sure he’s been nominated loads of times but that’s not everything. Jeff Bridges should win because I think he’s just about the coolest actor around, full stop. Shallow? Yeah, but I still think his charm will tip it.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Shame though it is, I expect Sandra Bullock will take this one on the strength of popular opinion. A strong showing from Bullock, whose last two films have been nothing to write home about, quite frankly. Gabby Sidibe should probably get it for the lead in Precious but I strongly suspect she won’t. A pity.

Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

I don’t think there’s anyone alive who doesn’t think this one belongs to Christoph Waltz for his utterly superb protrayal of ‘The Jew Hunter’ Col. Hans Landa in Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds. Far be it from me to fly in the face of such opinion. Take it away, Christoph.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Mo’nique, Precious

Mo’nique, fresh from being a chat show host, comedian and maker of god-awful ‘comedy’ films has been the only woman to move me to tears this year (I know, it’s only March – form an orderly queue). Her exquisite portrayal of Mary, the bitter and poisonous mother of Precious in the movie of the same name was quite simply the highlight of the cinematic year for me. I hated her so much. It simply has to be her, or there is indeed no justice.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

James reckons on Nick Hornby for An Education, but I don’t think he carries enough clout in Hollywood to pick this up. Up in the Air is very well thought of and that’ll do for me. That said, Geoffrey Fletcher could be an outside chance for his adaptation of Precious.

Best Original Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man

My, this one is tough. I think, deep down, that Tarantino will sneak this one for Inglourious Basterds, but given that A Serious Man doesn’t seem to be getting much attention, it could go to Joel and Ethan Coen. The Hurt Locker must surely be in with a shout, too, but I’m sticking with A Serious Man.

Directing: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Not too tough a call, this one. It seems the top three choices here are The Hurt Locker, The Hurt Locker and The Hurt Locker. Of course, you might expect Tarantino or Cameron to lift it, but I think this year, it’s going to be a no-brainer.

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

See above. Kathryn Bigelow has already picked up the Director’s Guild award for The Hurt Locker, usually a sure-fire shoo-in for best picture, as well as the BAFTA – put that alongside an almost unprecedented late run in the popularity stakes and it’s all gold. The best betting odds I could find for this one were 41/50. For non-gamblers, it means you’d need to bet 10 €/£/$ to win just 8.20 plus your money back. I’ve never met a poor bookmaker, so my money’s on the favourite.

So there you have it. No need to stay up late now.

PS. Small message from James here – Colin and I have agreed that a bottle of ‘good’ wine is purchased by the loser of the above ‘contest’ for the winner. I can’t wait to enjoy my Piat D’Or…

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